Mike Burgess AM, Director-General of Security
4 November 2024
Australia’s security environment continues to be complex, challenging and changing.
I am proud of ASIO’s response, drawing on 75 years of expertise to lean into the complexity, confront the challenge and stay ahead of the change.
Terrorism and PMV
The national terrorism threat level is PROBABLE.
ASIO assesses there is a greater than fifty percent chance of a domestic terrorist attack or attack planning in the next twelve months.
My decision to raise the threat level followed a concerning increase in politically motivated violence, and the likelihood of more violence in the immediate future.
Unfortunately, as you are no doubt well aware, the security dynamics are playing out as we predicted.
Both here and overseas, there have been spikes in political polarisation and intolerance, uncivil debate and unpeaceful protest. Anti-authority beliefs have grown; trust in institutions has eroded; provocative and inflammatory behaviours have been normalised.
This trend began before COVID, but accelerated in response to lockdowns and other government actions. It accelerated further after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, and again after Israel’s military response.
These dynamics raised the temperature of the security environment and created a climate more permissive of violence, making acts of terrorism more likely.
Politically motivated violence is now one of ASIO’s principal security concerns.
It is not a new phenomenon – it’s been one of our legislated heads of security for decades – but it is influencing the security environment in ways and at levels we have not seen for some time.
Politically motivated violence encompasses terrorism but is broader than that. It covers any violent act or violent threat intended or likely to achieve a political objective. This includes violent protest, riot or an attack on a politician or our democratic institutions.
In this environment, the motivations for terrorism have become more diverse and complicated. We are seeing an increase in issue-motivated extremism, fueled by personal grievances, conspiracy theories and anti-authority ideologies. Some individuals are embracing a blend of ideologies, including those that justify acts of violence.
Religiously motivated violent extremists remain the majority of ASIO’s counter-terrorism caseload.
To be clear, I am talking about individuals who follow a perverse interpretation of Islam – not people of Islamic faith.
We also remain concerned about the re-emerging offshore capabilities of ISIL and al Qaeda.
But this does not mean you can assume there is a single ‘type’ of terrorist threat, or even a ‘most likely’ motivation for a terrorist attack.
So far this year, there have been nine attacks, disruptions or suspected terrorist incidents in Australia.
In our assessment, one third of the incidents involved religiously motivated violent extremism.
The majority of incidents were allegedly motivated by nationalist and racist ideologies or mixed ideologies.
Importantly – because this is often misunderstood – none of the attacks or plots were directly inspired by the conflict in the Middle East.
The recent cases highlight other features of the new counter-terrorism environment. All involved young people, all involved lone actors or small groups, all involved low capability weapons, few of the alleged perpetrators were previously known to ASIO or police, and of those who moved to violence, the majority gave little or no warning.
These dynamics make ASIO’s job more difficult and demanding.
While ASIO and our partners remain well positioned and well-practiced at detecting and disrupting traditional terrorism, many of the factors now driving extremism are challenges we cannot solve alone.
The radicalisation of minors, the impacts of social media, mental health challenges, the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories, the use of encryption and growing levels of grievance all require whole-of-community responses.
Gaza Visas
As I mentioned a moment ago, none of the most recent terrorist incidents in Australia were inspired by the war in the Middle East. None were directed from offshore. None of the alleged perpetrators were members of listed terrorist organisations.
Of course, that does not mean ASIO is blasé about the implications of the conflict for domestic security. We are monitoring these closely.
In particular, I am proud of the work ASIO’s experts have done conducting security checks on individuals fleeing the conflict.
I cannot go into detail about what our part of the visa process entails because the more applicants know, the more likely someone will be able to game the system.
You will note I said, “our part of the process”.
That’s because ASIO does not make decisions on general suitability or character grounds – that’s a job for others, just as it is not ASIO’s job to decide what type of visa is issued or a person’s eligibility for a particular type of visa.
ASIO’s role is specific but important.
We are asked to assess whether an individual represents a direct or indirect threat to security.
When a matter is referred to us or our intelligence indicates a security concern, we investigate it with rigour.
Each case is taken on its merits.
We examine all the available evidence, including classified information from our international partners, to determine if a person is a direct or indirect threat to security.
If someone supports violence, or supports terrorism, or supports the destruction of Israel, then that is not OK.
But simply liking a provocative tweet or voicing support for a Palestinian homeland may not be an automatic disqualifier in our part of the process, if the individual does not harbour extremist beliefs or support violence.
Espionage and Foreign Interference
While the threat of politically motivated violence – including terrorism – has increased, levels of espionage and foreign interference have not diminished.
Multiple nations are trying to covertly understand and shape Australia’s politics and decision-making; our alliances and partnerships; our defence capabilities; and our economic and policy priorities.
Multiple nations are trying to recruit government officials, interfere in our political processes, and monitor, harass and intimidate members of diaspora communities.
ASIO continues to prosecute a more aggressive counter-espionage and foreign interference posture.
In July, for example, the Australian Federal Police arrested and charged two Russian-born Australian citizens after extensive ASIO and Counter Foreign Interference Taskforce investigations.
This was the first-time espionage charges had been laid since the law was introduced in 2018. The investigation remains ongoing, and the matter is before the courts, so I will not say anything further.
Prosecutions are only one way of countering espionage and foreign interference. Since it was stood up in mid-2020, the Taskforce has conducted more than 120 operations to disrupt and mitigate threats against our communities, political systems and classified information.
Conclusion
ASIO’s achievements this year are a reminder that the threats facing Australia are substantial but not insurmountable.
Foreign intelligence services are sophisticated but not unstoppable.
A terrorism threat level of PROBABLE does not mean inevitable.
ASIO will continue to do what we have successfully done for 75 years: protecting Australia and Australians from threats to their security.